Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E0 0xe0fe…e62a weather 414 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$685 (+2%) realized +$669 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate85%352W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$314
14 days+$442
30 days+$857
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$472
other 1% +$176
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +14.1% +3.2% 83% 47% -3.8%
≤30d 243 +8.6% -1.8% 84% 49% -4.7%
≤90d 412 +9.1% -1.3% 85% 45% -7.6%
all 412 +9.1% -1.3% 85% 45% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 45% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 19% -16.5%
15% -19.4% 7% -24.6%
20% -27.3% 4% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$45 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$669
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses352 / 60
Open positions2
Markets (closed)412 / 414
History coverage85d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 412 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? No 90¢ 100¢ $136 $150 +$14 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $77 +$18 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$10 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 −$4 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $33 +$9 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $46 −$5 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $128 +$22 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $122 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $42 −$37 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $90 −$9 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $182 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $114 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$35 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $86 −$17 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $36 +$9 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $90 −$68 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $76 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$15 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $42 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $87 +$13 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $42 +$8 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$2 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $63 +$8 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $160 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $73 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $17 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $54 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $143 +$34 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $102 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $46 +$9 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $128 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $126 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $79 −$49 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $55 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$4 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $32 +$17 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 −$10 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $57 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $32 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$54 +469%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 13 $90 +$10 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 46m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $78 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $90 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 80¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 80¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 80¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $42 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 39¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 40¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 43¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $13 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 36¢ $12 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $30 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 60¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $24 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.96 · official $191.96 (match) · 2375 history records