Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E1
0xe101…c359
world · 60 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$16 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses20 / 39
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 1 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $122 +$3 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $111 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $111 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $112 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $125 −$2 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $73 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $214 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $110 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $107 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $94 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $177 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $113 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $81 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $111 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $59 +$6 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $115 +$2 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $115 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $166 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $111 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $5 +$5 +95%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $107 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $367 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $47 −$3 -6%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $670 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,123 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $115 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $20 +$3 +13%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $738 −$5 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $670 +$2 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jul 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 25 $54 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 25 $44 +$1 +3%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jul 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jul 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 23 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 37% −$5
world 30% +$12
other 15% $0
politics 13% +$1
finance 2% +$6
culture 1% +$2
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $125 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $122 2h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 33h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 33h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 33h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 33h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 33h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 33h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 33h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 33h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $111 39h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $12 42h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $100 42h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $112 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $98 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $14 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $123 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $125 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $4 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $69 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $73 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $28 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $28 3d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $113 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $52 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $62 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $110 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $110 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 25 +4.5% -5.5% 48% 8% -8.9%
≤90d 32 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 9% -9.3%
all 59 +0.2% -9.3% 34% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 5% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 2% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 235 history records