Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E1 0xe107…42d9 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$142 (+10%) realized +$231 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$77
sports 7% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -19.7% -27.3% 33% 33% +14.0%
≤30d 6 -19.7% -27.3% 33% 33% +14.0%
≤90d 6 -19.7% -27.3% 33% 33% +14.0%
all 6 -19.7% -27.3% 33% 33% +14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 33% +14.0%
10% -34.3% 33% +3.1%
15% -40.6% 33% -6.9%
20% -46.5% 0% -16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$40 · ×3.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized+$231
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 58¢ $300 $211 −$89 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 −$3 -3%
Canada to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 24 $101 −$7 -7%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$46 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 −$92 -46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $599 +$274 +46%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $61 −$59 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 74¢ $98 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $101 3h
Canada to score first vs. Switzerland? SELL No 56¢ $94 4h
Canada to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY No 59¢ $101 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $302 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 45¢ $106 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 27h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $61 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $599 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.45 · official $211.45 (match) · 12 history records