Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe109…65a6 other 231 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 220L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$38
sports 21% −$15
economics 8% −$5
politics 8% −$5
culture 7% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 230 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)230 / 231
History coverage128d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $507 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $350 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $560 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $184 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $114 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $312 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $136 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $234 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $283 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $195 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $260 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $882 −$2 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $289 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $198 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $223 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $280 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $128 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $166 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $204 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $200 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $220 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $200 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $190 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $445 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $204 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $144 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 11h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 12h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 21h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $50 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 28h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 29h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 31h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 32h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 34h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 36h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 37h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $50 39h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 40h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $51 42h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $51 43h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 45h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 46h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.83 · official $49.83 (match) · 1313 history records