Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:15:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E1 0xe109…ed21 crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$55 (+4%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%32W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$210
other 7% −$90
sports 6% −$75
world 4% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +94.9% +76.4% 100% 100% +76.4%
≤30d 1 +94.9% +76.4% 100% 100% +76.4%
≤90d 56 +21.1% +9.5% 57% 54% -7.2%
all 56 +21.1% +9.5% 57% 54% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.5% 54% -7.2%
10% -0.9% 48% -16.1%
15% -10.5% 39% -24.2%
20% -19.3% 36% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$20 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses32 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage86d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $50 −$12 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 08 $26 +$44 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 21 $15 +$18 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 21 $25 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 21 $60 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 21 $45 −$9 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 21 $15 +$24 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 20 $15 +$24 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 20 $15 +$16 +107%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 18 $80 −$75 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 18 $30 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 11 $25 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 11 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 10 $5 +$17 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 09 $30 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 09 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 09 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 08 $25 +$23 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 08 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 08 $15 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 08 $8 +$11 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 08 $10 +$13 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 08 $6 +$45 +742%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 04 $25 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 04 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 04 $40 +$29 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 04 $44 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 04 $35 +$9 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 04 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 04 $15 +$39 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? SELL Yes 27¢ $38 34d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY Yes 35¢ $50 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $70 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $15 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $33 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $15 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $44 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $25 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $76 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $60 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $10 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $36 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $45 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $15 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $15 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $15 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $31 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $15 67d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $41 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $30 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $10 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $25 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $34 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records