Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E1 0xe10f…e4ae sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,102 (+28%) realized +$10,304 · open −$202
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%28W / 17L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$697per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$273est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$3,341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$299
7 days+$1,962
14 days+$8,887
30 days+$8,887
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$5,843
other 26% +$2,591
finance 3% +$185
crypto 1% +$155
tech 1% +$12
world 0% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.5% -10.0% 48% 48% +3.9%
≤30d 45 +17.9% +6.6% 62% 56% +15.2%
≤90d 45 +17.9% +6.6% 62% 56% +15.2%
all 45 +17.9% +6.6% 62% 56% +15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.6% 56% +15.2%
10% ← realistic here -3.6% 53% +4.2%
15% -12.9% 44% -5.9%
20% -21.4% 27% -15.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$960) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$453 vs −$238 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.34 per $1 lost it wins $3.34
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$3,341
Realized+$10,304
Unrealized−$202
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses28 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$273
Open positions6
Markets (closed)45 / 52
History coverage12d
Avg bet$697
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1,006 $979 −$27 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $690 $685 −$5 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $690 $684 −$6 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $400 $555 +$155 (+39%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Spain 79¢ 32¢ $553 $224 −$329 (-59%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $203 $213 +$10 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1,140 −$789 -69%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $541 −$101 -19%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $650 +$350 +54%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $6 +$3 +43%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $561 +$239 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $350 +$150 +43%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $289 −$191 -66%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $275 +$225 +82%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $294 −$290 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $100 +$150 +150%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $508 −$465 -91%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $766 −$764 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $360 +$440 +122%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,166 +$1,234 +106%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $729 +$571 +78%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $76 −$31 -41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $960 +$840 +88%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,003 +$397 +40%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,531 +$469 +31%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $163 −$163 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $104 −$102 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,377 −$59 -4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,003 +$96 +10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5,635 +$1,375 +24%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $401 +$25 +6%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$515 +513%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $74 −$73 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $820 +$281 +34%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $483 +$117 +24%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $503 +$237 +47%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $2,020 +$1,010 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $239 +$261 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $199 +$301 +152%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $630 +$370 +59%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $366 +$12 +3%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,007 +$185 +18%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $202 +$88 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $301 −$300 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $302 −$300 -99%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $1,621 +$1,273 +78%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3,377 +$1,472 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $8 31m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $443 31m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $3 31m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $100 32m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 18¢ $351 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $567 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $283 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $88 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $62 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $129 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $12 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $696 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 55¢ $440 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 67¢ $541 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $690 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 49¢ $152 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $471 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $179 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 70¢ $561 23h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 70¢ $6 23h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $412 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,032 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 70¢ $86 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 70¢ $45 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 70¢ $204 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 20¢ $98 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $289 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 70¢ $2 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 70¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,340.60 · official $3,511.60 · 235 history records