Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:20:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe10f…1a87 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,872 (-35%) realized −$2,872 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate15%5W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$461
7 days−$1,282
14 days−$1,376
30 days−$1,376
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$2,746
sports 14% −$155
world 4% −$39
crypto 2% −$145
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-52.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -41.1% -46.7% 10% 10% -28.9%
≤30d 22 -39.1% -44.9% 14% 14% -29.9%
≤90d 28 -52.2% -56.7% 11% 11% -44.6%
all 33 -47.0% -52.0% 15% 9% -43.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.0% 9% -43.7%
10% -56.6% 9% -49.1%
15% -60.8% 9% -54.0%
20% -64.6% 9% -58.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$136 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,872
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses5 / 28
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage245d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 +$268 +262%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $144 −$140 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 +$453 +442%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $91 −$89 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2,202 −$194 -9%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $176 −$171 -98%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $595 −$37 -6%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,378 −$155 -11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $264 −$258 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Will BNB reach $600 in April? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +61%
Will BNB dip to $500 in April? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March? Mar 26 $533 −$533 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March? Mar 25 $477 −$477 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March? Mar 25 $447 −$447 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? Mar 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 22 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31? Nov 04 $16 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Nov 04 $111 +$1 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 19 $99 −$47 -47%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Oct 19 $100 −$41 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $144 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $102 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $102 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $102 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $91 27h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 27h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $204 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $500 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $176 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $559 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $559 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $595 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $523 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $612 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $589 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $616 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $699 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $896 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $788 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $264 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records