Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe110…453c sports 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 406d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$656 (-12%) realized −$649 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%35W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$873
7 days−$455
14 days−$406
30 days−$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$445
other 46% −$191
world 3% −$105
crypto 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -4.2% -13.4% 27% 26% -21.7%
≤30d 79 -2.1% -11.4% 29% 28% -20.1%
≤90d 79 -2.1% -11.4% 29% 28% -20.1%
all 110 -4.9% -13.9% 32% 28% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 28% -22.4%
10% -22.2% 26% -29.9%
15% -29.7% 24% -36.6%
20% -36.6% 16% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$27 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

406d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$649
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses35 / 75
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)110 / 114
History coverage406d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open? Jun 20 $124 −$59 -48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 20 $56 −$19 -34%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $107 −$89 -83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $30 −$27 -91%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $150 −$105 -70%
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $103 −$88 -86%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 20 $118 −$106 -90%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 +$16 +66%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 −$17 -60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$3 -51%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $18 −$9 -52%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 −$15 -57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $14 −$1 -9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$26 -84%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$3 -34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $28 +$13 +46%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 +$9 +35%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$3 -23%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$13 -62%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 −$9 -22%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $39 +$2 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 −$12 -54%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $24 −$11 -46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 +$9 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $120 +$19 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $149 −$123 -82%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$39 +379%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $209 +$98 +47%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $78 −$31 -40%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $77 +$51 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 7m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 15m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 77¢ $12 19m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 29m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 40m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $29 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 43¢ $29 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 3h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 3h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 6h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 7h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 8h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 8h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 8h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 8h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 8h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 9h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 9h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.45 · official $26.45 (match) · 382 history records