Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:11:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe117…e0d0 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$10
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$8
other 22% −$1
politics 3% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +12.5% +1.8% 30% 10% -7.7%
≤30d 20 +6.0% -4.1% 20% 5% -8.9%
≤90d 20 +6.0% -4.1% 20% 5% -8.9%
all 38 +2.6% -7.2% 32% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 3% -9.0%
10% -16.0% 3% -17.7%
15% -24.1% 3% -25.6%
20% -31.6% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage467d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $54 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $79 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $9 +$11 +123%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $114 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $38 −$1 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $176 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $61 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Dec 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 02 $12 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 05 $1 $0 -19%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Jul 03 $11 $0 -3%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $12 $0 -1%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 03 $13 $0 -2%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $12 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 29 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 26 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $11 $0 +5%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 09 $3 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $15 31m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $38 31m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $54 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $16 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $16 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $63 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $19 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $44 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $17 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $6 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $51 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 24¢ $12 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $58 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $58 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $58 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $54 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $54 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records