Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:39:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe117…b4e7 other 1216 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 178d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$970 (+5%) realized +$945 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%94W / 1027L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$7,783now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$749
14 days−$1,090
30 days−$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$2,442
other 7% +$27
politics 7% −$46
crypto 5% +$160
weather 2% −$62
culture 1% −$8
economics 1% −$171
finance 1% +$33
tech 1% +$9
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -37.7% -43.7% 38% 23% -39.0%
≤30d 84 -26.8% -33.7% 44% 24% -12.8%
≤90d 129 -39.1% -44.9% 36% 19% +13.5%
all 1121 -21.8% -29.3% 8% 6% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 6% +11.8%
10% -36.0% 6% +1.1%
15% -42.2% 5% -8.7%
20% -47.9% 5% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$2 · ×21.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$7,783
Realized+$945
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses94 / 1027
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions110
Markets (closed)1121 / 1216
History coverage178d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 110 History 1121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 34¢ 31¢ $1,608 $1,478 −$130 (-8%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 86¢ $767 $1,278 +$511 (+67%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $1,200 $1,199 −$1 (-0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 44¢ 38¢ $1,203 $1,058 −$145 (-12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 96¢ $500 $583 +$83 (+17%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $271 $210 −$61 (-22%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $225 $202 −$22 (-10%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 63¢ 80¢ $122 $155 +$33 (+27%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 25¢ 31¢ $105 $130 +$25 (+24%)
Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $99 $112 +$13 (+13%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 79¢ 86¢ $95 $103 +$8 (+9%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $169 $94 −$75 (-44%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 34¢ 34¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 90¢ $93 $90 −$3 (-4%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 99¢ $72 $89 +$17 (+24%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 44¢ 42¢ $88 $85 −$3 (-3%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 84¢ $77 $84 +$8 (+10%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 67¢ 99¢ $52 $76 +$25 (+48%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $77 $74 −$3 (-4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $52 $59 +$7 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $45 $50 +$4 (+10%)
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $48 $48 +$1 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $47 $44 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 23 $83 +$6 +8%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $52 +$18 +34%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 20 $27 +$11 +41%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $117 +$120 +103%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $104 +$6 +6%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $257 +$77 +30%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $102 −$56 -55%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $192 −$35 -18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $51 +$40 +79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $208 −$106 -51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $512 −$512 -100%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 18 $129 −$128 -99%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 18 $37 −$22 -61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $54 +$47 +87%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $57 +$3 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most Jun 13 $8 −$1 -18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $44 +$4 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $48 +$11 +23%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 11 $14 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $61 +$13 +21%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 10 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$3 +103%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $102 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $89 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $40 45h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos BUY Yes 2¢ $7 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $16 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $79 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $105 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,782.64 · official $7,782.19 (match) · 3500 history records