Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E1 0xe11a…0b0f world 6 markets active 4d ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+3%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$61
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% +$2
other 24% +$33
crypto 23% −$9
sports 23% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.7% -8.0% 50% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 6 +2.8% -7.0% 50% 0% -6.5%
≤90d 6 +2.8% -7.0% 50% 0% -6.5%
all 6 +2.8% -7.0% 50% 0% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 0% -6.5%
10% -15.9% 0% -15.5%
15% -24.0% 0% -23.6%
20% -31.4% 0% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$5 · ×4.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.84 per $1 lost it wins $6.84
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage7d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $54 +$3 +6%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 Jun 16 $41 −$1 -3%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 11 $447 +$33 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 10 $451 $0 +0%
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) Jun 09 $421 +$35 +8%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Jun 09 $431 −$9 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records