Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:56:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

E1 0xe11c…3c84 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$214 · open −$198

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown62%max

Avg bet$342per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$1,604now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$61

7 days−$61

14 days+$371

30 days+$214

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-25.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-39.4%	-45.2%	0%	0%	-45.2%
≤30d	4	-17.5%	-25.4%	25%	25%	+11.7%
≤90d	4	-17.5%	-25.4%	25%	25%	+11.7%
all	4	-17.5%	-25.4%	25%	25%	+11.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.4%	25%	+11.7%
10%	-32.5%	25%	+1.0%
15%	-39.1%	25%	-8.7%
20%	-45.0%	25%	-17.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$445 vs −$77 · ×5.77 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage

Net worth$1,604

Realized+$214

Unrealized−$198

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions4

Markets (closed)4 / 8

History coverage22d

Avg bet$342

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown62%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	71¢	62¢	$1,481	$1,300	−$181 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$130	$123	−$7 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$100	$91	−$9 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$90	$90	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 28	$154	−$61	-39%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$517	+$445	+86%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 14	$82	−$14	-17%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 06	$160	−$157	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$93	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$93	6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$65	6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$69	13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$68	13d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	71¢	$1,494	20d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	38¢	$160	21d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$82	21d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	21d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$154	21d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	53¢	$507	21d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	21d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,603.75 · official $1,603.75 (match) · 35 history records