trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 6 | -54.6% | -58.9% | 33% | 33% | -72.2% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -30.4% | -37.0% | 50% | 50% | -45.5% |
| all | 23 | +2.5% | -7.3% | 57% | 57% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.3% | 57% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -16.2% | 48% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -24.3% | 35% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -31.7% | 22% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 80¢ | $74 | $118 | +$44 (+59%) |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 20¢ | $74 | $30 | −$44 (-59%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $1 | +$1 | +48% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 08 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 02 | $3 | −$3 | -99% |
| XRP Up or Down on May 27? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +25% |
| Magic vs. Pistons | May 27 | $1 | $0 | +27% |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | May 27 | $1 | +$1 | +101% |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | Apr 29 | $2 | +$1 | +44% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | Apr 23 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| XRP Up or Down on February 9? | Apr 10 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 9? | Apr 10 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on April 1? | Apr 10 | $1 | $0 | +15% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on March 30? | Apr 01 | $1 | $0 | +15% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on March 27? | Mar 30 | $2 | +$1 | +52% |
| Solana Up or Down on March 26? | Mar 27 | $2 | +$1 | +52% |
| Solana Up or Down on March 23? | Mar 26 | $1 | +$2 | +199% |
| XRP Up or Down on March 20? | Mar 23 | $1 | $0 | +23% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on March 10? | Mar 20 | $1 | +$2 | +119% |
| Solana Up or Down on February 19? | Feb 21 | $5,267 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | Feb 19 | $5,064 | $0 | -0% |
| Solana Up or Down on February 4? | Feb 09 | $1 | $0 | +41% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Jan 26 | $15 | $0 | -2% |