Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E1 0xe121…84da sports 1200 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$401 (+9%) realized +$405 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate66%754W / 392L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$136
14 days+$164
30 days+$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$349
other 35% −$67
crypto 11% −$27
politics 4% −$1
world 0% +$5
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -10.2% -18.8% 57% 46% -2.1%
≤30d 719 -3.4% -12.6% 61% 51% -2.9%
≤90d 1146 -0.1% -9.6% 66% 52% -4.0%
all 1146 -0.1% -9.6% 66% 52% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 52% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 37% -13.2%
15% -26.1% 25% -21.5%
20% -33.4% 16% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized+$405
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses754 / 392
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions54
Markets (closed)1146 / 1200
History coverage80d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 1146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 54¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-28%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+18%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 61¢ 61¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 44¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-27%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 92¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 69¢ 96¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 38¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+141%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 56¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+82%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 68¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+76%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 67¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $101 −$92 -91%
Set 1 Winner: Eala vs Rybakina Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 −$86 -84%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $61 +$45 +74%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $20 −$4 -22%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $1 +$1 +105%
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Hanfmann Jun 18 $1 $0 +26%
Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Muchova Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +40%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $2 +$2 +90%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $152 +$154 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$33 +129%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $106 −$104 -99%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Set 1 Winner: Atmane vs Medvedev Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $20 +$5 +24%
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Alexandrova Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $6 +$2 +27%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $20 −$8 -40%
Set 2 Winner: Badosa vs Gauff Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +18%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +123%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$4 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$50 +99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $12 +$9 +81%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$23 -45%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +73%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$11 -54%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 33m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 6¢ $9 33m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 78¢ $1 34m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 22¢ $26 34m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 6¢ $0 53m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $101 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $1 2h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 94¢ $1 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 9¢ $16 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 4h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 77¢ $10 6h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Elena Rybakina 23¢ $3 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $51 7h
Set 1 Winner: Eala vs Rybakina BUY Rybakina 76¢ $1 8h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 83¢ $10 8h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova SELL Madison Keys 100¢ $2 8h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 91¢ $1 8h
Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Muchova BUY Keys 95¢ $1 9h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 48¢ $1 9h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Hanfmann BUY Zverev 79¢ $1 11h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 86¢ $10 11h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 92¢ $1 11h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys BUY Elina Svitolina 83¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.67 · official $311.09 (match) · 2868 history records