trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | -8.5% | -17.2% | 50% | 50% | -11.4% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -8.5% | -17.2% | 50% | 50% | -11.4% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -8.5% | -17.2% | 50% | 50% | -11.4% |
| all | 25 | -18.1% | -25.9% | 48% | 32% | -32.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.9% | 32% | -32.1% |
| 10% | -33.0% | 32% | -38.6% |
| 15% | -39.5% | 16% | -44.6% |
| 20% | -45.4% | 8% | -50.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Spain (-5.5) | Saudi Arabia | 64¢ | 98¢ | $38 | $58 | +$20 (+52%) |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $19 | $0 | −$19 (-99%) |
| Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $16 | $0 | −$16 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Spain (-1.5) | Jun 21 | $62 | +$16 | +27% |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | Jun 21 | $56 | −$3 | -6% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $70 | +$30 | +44% |
| Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 | Jun 19 | $64 | −$63 | -99% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $23 | −$22 | -98% |
| Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 | Jun 18 | $79 | +$21 | +27% |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $38 | −$37 | -97% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $64 | +$18 | +28% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $19 | +$9 | +50% |
| Spread: France (-1.5) | Jun 16 | $41 | +$59 | +146% |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Jun 16 | $70 | −$12 | -17% |
| Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? | Mar 23 | $70 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Mar 21 | $68 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair? | Mar 20 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026? | Mar 20 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026? | Mar 20 | $69 | −$69 | -100% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Mar 20 | $250 | −$250 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Mar 18 | $67 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Jan 30 | $235 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026? | Jan 30 | $5 | +$2 | +33% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | Jan 30 | $5 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026? | Jan 30 | $25 | +$20 | +79% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Jan 29 | $9 | −$3 | -39% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | Jan 29 | $10 | −$2 | -25% |