Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe129…e18f other 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$399 (-47%) realized −$360 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%4W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$407
sports 29% −$21
crypto 4% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -44.4% -49.7% 19% 19% -72.0%
≤30d 21 -44.4% -49.7% 19% 19% -72.0%
≤90d 21 -44.4% -49.7% 19% 19% -72.0%
all 21 -44.4% -49.7% 19% 19% -72.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.7% 19% -72.0%
10% -54.5% 19% -74.7%
15% -58.9% 19% -77.2%
20% -62.9% 19% -79.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$29 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$360
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses4 / 17
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage6d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 36¢ $95 $68 −$27 (-28%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Under 35¢ 63¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+80%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $35 $15 −$20 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$18 -86%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$1 -4%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $23 −$11 -49%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$15 -73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 +$13 +63%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$25 +244%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 +$31 +149%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$11 -35%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $265 −$258 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$7 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 35¢ $10 1m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 7m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 25m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 53m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $71 54m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $25 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 0¢ $5 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 23h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $20 25h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $18 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 31¢ $12 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 59¢ $23 26h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 26h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 26h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 26h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 27h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 27h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 27h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.70 · official $100.70 (match) · 66 history records