Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe130…2f27 other 52 markets active 123d ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (410 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$33,259 (+71%) realized +$33,259 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate12%58W / 421L
Whale WR9%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$904per market
Trades / day410.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$10,417
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (410 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 427 -18.1% -25.9% 12% 11% -79.6%
≤30d 427 -18.1% -25.9% 12% 11% -79.6%
≤90d 427 -18.1% -25.9% 12% 11% -79.6%
all 479 -22.0% -29.4% 12% 11% -63.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover410.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.4% 11% -63.4%
10% ← realistic here -36.2% 11% -66.9%
15% -42.3% 10% -70.1%
20% -48.0% 10% -73.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -99% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 9% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -85% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
49.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$475 vs −$305 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33,259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses58 / 421
Whale WR (big bets)9%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)479 / 52
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$904
Trades / day410.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 479 Trades
no open positions (451 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 20 Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 29 $278 −$285 -103%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 29 $41 −$6 -15%
Will Elon tweet 425–449 times August 15–August 22? Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? Jun 29 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 29 $3 −$13 -438%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026 Jun 29 $458 −$630 -138%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025 Jun 29 $173 −$250 -144%
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 22–August 29? Jun 29 $7 −$15 -209%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Jun 29 $3 −$13 -382%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? Jun 29 $82 +$182 +222%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 202 Jun 29 $551 −$612 -111%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Jun 29 $625 −$879 -141%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 29 $868 −$800 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jun 29 $41 −$158 -385%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 29 $1,012 −$997 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 29 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? Jun 29 $78 −$176 -225%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026 Jun 29 $106 −$143 -135%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Jun 29 $20 −$38 -189%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 29 $3 +$30 +997%
Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 15–August 22? Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Jun 29 $278 −$261 -94%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1? Jun 29 $167 −$425 -254%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025? Jun 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times August 15–August 22? Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026 Jun 29 $39 −$55 -139%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? Jun 29 $40 −$79 -198%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Jun 29 $310 −$479 -154%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Jun 29 $46 −$58 -126%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? Jun 29 $259 −$356 -138%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 202 Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon tweet 265–279 times August 29–September 5? Jun 29 $2 +$74 +3699%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 20 Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Jun 29 $447 −$446 -100%
Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 15–August 22? Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jun 29 $106 −$188 -176%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11? Jun 29 $39 −$120 -307%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 29 $24 +$60 +253%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 29 $202 −$190 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025 Jun 29 $60 −$243 -406%
Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 22–August 29? Jun 29 $35 −$58 -166%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 29 $3 −$311 -10352%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Jun 29 $1,920 −$1,525 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 18–25? Jun 29 $82 −$373 -457%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY Yes 33¢ $165 123d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 123d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 123d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $25 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $6 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $20 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $1 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $1 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $1 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $1 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $1 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $2 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $0 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $3 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $1 123d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $18 123d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $1 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $0 123d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 123d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $7 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $6 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $4 123d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $9 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records