Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:56:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe130…72eb world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate41%16W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% −$8
other 14% $0
finance 1% −$2
sports 1% −$8
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.1% -7.7% 75% 12% -10.1%
≤30d 25 -5.6% -14.6% 48% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 31 -4.7% -13.8% 42% 3% -9.7%
all 39 -13.3% -21.6% 41% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 8% -10.1%
10% -29.1% 5% -18.7%
15% -35.9% 3% -26.6%
20% -42.2% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses16 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage526d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $43 −$4 -9%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $22 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $172 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $8 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $46 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $88 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $9 −$4 -41%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $3 −$1 -23%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $27 −$2 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $23 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $62 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 28 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $99 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $46 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $47 +$3 +5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $22 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $27 −$2 -6%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $285 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 13 $101 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 12 $4 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 11 $301 $0 +0%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Feb 24 $3 −$3 -86%
Weber State vs. Montana State Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Maryland vs. Nebraska Feb 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in January? Feb 13 $5 +$1 +30%
Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? Feb 12 $0 $0 -100%
Grambling State vs. Alabama A&M Feb 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 06 $9 $0 +3%
Raptors vs. Knicks Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $25 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $40 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $39 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $27 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $16 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $11 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $9 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $39 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $39 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $43 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $11 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $22 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $30 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $12 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $42 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $21 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $9 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.28 · official $24.95 (match) · 147 history records