Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe130…8035 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-5%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%28W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$28
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$8
sports 7% +$2
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +7.6% -2.6% 65% 61% +2.5%
≤30d 50 -4.0% -13.1% 56% 54% -11.6%
≤90d 50 -4.0% -13.1% 56% 54% -11.6%
all 50 -4.0% -13.1% 56% 54% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 54% -11.6%
10% -21.4% 48% -20.1%
15% -29.0% 46% -27.8%
20% -36.0% 40% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses28 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage10d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0 BUY 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $9 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1.80 · 89 history records