Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E1 0xe132…95db other 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$85 (+5%) realized +$88 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%34W / 22L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$14
14 days+$79
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$28
sports 13% +$67
crypto 8% −$14
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +8.8% -1.6% 64% 54% -7.5%
≤30d 56 -0.3% -9.8% 61% 54% -3.3%
≤90d 56 -0.3% -9.8% 61% 54% -3.3%
all 56 -0.3% -9.8% 61% 54% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 54% -3.3%
10% -18.4% 46% -12.6%
15% -26.3% 34% -21.0%
20% -33.5% 23% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized+$88
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses34 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)56 / 67
History coverage32d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $55 $44 −$11 (-21%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 87¢ 81¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 +$9 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$14 +28%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $76 +$40 +52%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $35 −$20 -56%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$7 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 +$14 +344%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 −$45 -45%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$19 -93%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$5 +12%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $128 +$5 +4%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -87%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$12 -79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$17 +82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $81 +$26 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $75 +$16 +22%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$5 -68%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 +$15 +23%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $47 +$20 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$6 +26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $46 +$20 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -70%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$5 -46%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 44¢ $9 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 50¢ $14 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 49¢ $41 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.08 · official $239.08 (match) · 185 history records