Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:32:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E1
0xe134…b9b7
world · 69 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$13 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses19 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage479d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 2 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 39¢ 44¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+12%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+29%)
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $17 −$2 -9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $75 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $67 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $66 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $46 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $39 −$3 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $73 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $71 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $36 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $69 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $14 −$1 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $48 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $38 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $43 −$4 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $26 +$6 +21%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $76 −$1 -2%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $73 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $34 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $36 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $74 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $5 $0 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $73 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $2 +$1 +21%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $35 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $73 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% −$1
politics 25% $0
other 17% $0
sports 11% −$12
economics 3% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $23 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $11 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $5 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $3 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $1 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $13 7h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $37 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $37 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $37 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $37 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $32 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $2 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $34 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $34 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $33 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $30 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $3 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $8 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $25 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.9% -12.1% 0% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 3% -10.0%
≤90d 66 -1.6% -10.9% 29% 3% -9.7%
all 67 -3.0% -12.3% 28% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 3% -10.1%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.39 · official $31.32 (match) · 299 history records