Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:49:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe135…be52 world 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$725 (-18%) realized −$724 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate56%59W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$262
14 days−$83
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$53
other 41% −$568
crypto 6% +$100
sports 5% −$109
finance 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -25.9% -33.0% 67% 33% -77.7%
≤30d 55 +0.6% -9.0% 51% 29% -15.9%
≤90d 106 +5.5% -4.6% 56% 32% -27.6%
all 106 +5.5% -4.6% 56% 32% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 32% -27.6%
10% -13.7% 19% -34.6%
15% -22.0% 11% -40.9%
20% -29.7% 10% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$23 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$724
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses59 / 47
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 123
History coverage79d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $63 $62 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 27 $16 +$1 +7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 27 $60 +$9 +15%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $272 −$272 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$100 +66%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 20 $26 −$22 -87%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $63 −$47 -76%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $8 +$5 +64%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Jun 20 $12 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $51 +$150 +293%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 +$35 +65%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$39 -76%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 18 $13 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $27 +$2 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $24 −$5 -20%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $11 −$3 -24%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$2 -9%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Jun 16 $19 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 16 $19 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $27 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $10 +$11 +107%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$7 -48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $37 −$10 -28%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 +$13 +82%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $13 −$3 -22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 -11%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $3 $0 -1%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $9 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -30%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $4 −$3 -68%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $33 −$27 -83%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $23 +$3 +11%
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $28 +$3 +11%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? Jun 01 $12 −$1 -5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $4 $0 +14%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Jun 01 $7 +$1 +12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $59 +$15 +25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $19 +$3 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? May 31 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 2h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $17 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $47 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $272 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $252 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN SELL 2¢ $3 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $15 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $10 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $63 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $12 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $152 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $12 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $2 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 15¢ $26 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 34¢ $25 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 25¢ $51 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $89 9d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 9d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $11 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $21 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.98 · official $61.98 (match) · 838 history records