Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe137…9a4e sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$60 (+7%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$36
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$11
sports 38% −$8
world 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +9.1% -1.3% 43% 29% -5.5%
≤30d 33 -2.9% -12.2% 39% 27% -8.1%
≤90d 33 -2.9% -12.2% 39% 27% -8.1%
all 33 -2.9% -12.2% 39% 27% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 27% -8.1%
10% -20.6% 18% -16.9%
15% -28.3% 15% -24.9%
20% -35.3% 12% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage12d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $31 −$15 -47%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $31 −$5 -15%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $61 −$15 -24%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 −$4 -19%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $21 −$15 -71%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 +$63 +307%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 +$20 +20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $41 +$39 +97%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $102 −$6 -6%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $21 −$6 -31%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$10 +98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$3 -28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$10 +191%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 −$4 -21%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $107 −$22 -20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$11 -70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $61 +$4 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$10 -49%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +17%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 +$5 +17%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 40h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 40h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 40h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 40h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 41h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 28¢ $19 41h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 41h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 41h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 41h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 42h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 48¢ $53 42h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 42h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 42h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 43h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 43h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 43h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 25¢ $17 43h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 43h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 28¢ $18 43h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 95¢ $3 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 57¢ $40 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records