Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E1 0xe13c…1159 other 252 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$487 (-3%) realized −$137 · open −$350
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%124W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$2,201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$132
14 days−$123
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$408
sports 12% +$395
politics 9% −$257
world 4% −$341
crypto 3% −$31
tech 1% +$23
economics 0% −$50
finance 0% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +9.4% -1.0% 59% 59% -3.9%
≤30d 82 +13.8% +3.0% 61% 61% -9.8%
≤90d 154 +6.5% -3.6% 60% 59% -6.9%
all 212 -0.6% -10.1% 58% 57% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 57% -11.0%
10% -18.7% 46% -19.5%
15% -26.5% 37% -27.3%
20% -33.7% 29% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$61 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$2,201
Realized−$137
Unrealized−$350
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses124 / 88
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions40
Markets (closed)212 / 252
History coverage197d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $375 $375 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026? Sinner 74¢ 50¢ $250 $168 −$82 (-33%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $157 $165 +$8 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $99 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 34¢ 22¢ $149 $95 −$54 (-36%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $75 $82 +$7 (+10%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $75 $82 +$7 (+10%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-2%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes 39¢ 12¢ $200 $65 −$135 (-68%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $43 −$6 (-13%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 44¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+14%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+14%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $45 $27 −$18 (-41%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes 38¢ 20¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-49%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $54 +$10 +18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $188 −$188 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $99 +$233 +236%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$28 +138%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 +$38 +92%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $51 +$32 +64%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $81 +$31 +38%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $26 +$34 +133%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $47 +$19 +40%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 +$56 +547%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $252 +$57 +22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 +$56 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $32 +$19 +61%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$27 +54%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$27 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$77 +75%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +72%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$60 +59%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$14 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +56%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 18 $25 +$7 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$37 +72%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $18 +$82 +471%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$118 +115%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $94 +$32 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $91 +$37 +41%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $126 +$27 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 +$26 +100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $76 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 26h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 26h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $102 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 34h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $76 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 44h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $41 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,201.02 · official $2,201.09 (match) · 615 history records