Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E1 0xe13d…9dda other 322 markets active 2h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-2%) realized −$27 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%172W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$2
14 days+$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$16
sports 12% −$5
world 1% −$8
politics 1% +$3
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +68.6% +52.6% 80% 80% +27.8%
≤30d 13 +61.9% +46.5% 77% 77% +22.8%
≤90d 90 -11.7% -20.1% 47% 47% -24.7%
all 321 +4.3% -5.6% 54% 53% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 53% -11.2%
10% -14.7% 52% -19.7%
15% -22.9% 48% -27.4%
20% -30.5% 43% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses172 / 149
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)321 / 322
History coverage265d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 65¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 30 $1 +$2 +152%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $1 +$1 +73%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $1 +$1 +65%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $1 +$2 +206%
Will Inter win Coppa Italia? May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fok May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2 +$1 +73%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Jiri Lehecka May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-04? May 07 $1 +$1 +124%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $1 +$1 +140%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $2 +$3 +129%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $3 +$1 +50%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $4 +$2 +44%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $3 +$4 +119%
Will AZ win on 2026-04-16? Apr 18 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-16? Apr 18 $4 +$2 +38%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-09? Apr 10 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $16 +$5 +31%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $10 +$6 +57%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $40 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 65¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 38¢ $1 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $1 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $2 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 60¢ $1 3d
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 62¢ $2 9d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 39¢ $1 22d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 62¢ $2 22d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 52¢ $2 23d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 56¢ $1 24d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 26d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 60¢ $1 27d
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 32¢ $1 29d
Will Inter win Coppa Italia? BUY No 27¢ $1 33d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-11? BUY No 66¢ $2 35d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fok BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 41¢ $1 35d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 57¢ $2 36d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 20¢ $1 36d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 55¢ $1 37d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07? BUY No 27¢ $1 39d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY No 41¢ $1 40d
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-04? BUY No 44¢ $1 42d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 20¢ $1 43d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? BUY No 42¢ $1 44d
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? BUY No 60¢ $5 46d
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx BUY Casper Ruud 48¢ $1 46d
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-04-27? BUY No 43¢ $2 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.53 · official $1.53 (match) · 529 history records