Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:18:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

E1 0xe13e…0c22 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$130 (+10%) realized +$131 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate54%14W / 12L

Drawdown93%max

Avg bet$42per market

Trades / day5.8pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit90%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$171

7 days+$151

14 days+$137

30 days+$137

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)-1.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+11.9%	+1.2%	58%	42%	+23.7%
≤30d	26	+8.6%	-1.8%	54%	42%	+2.3%
≤90d	26	+8.6%	-1.8%	54%	42%	+2.3%
all	26	+8.6%	-1.8%	54%	42%	+2.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.8%	42%	+2.3%
10%	-11.2%	35%	-7.5%
15%	-19.7%	31%	-16.5%
20%	-27.6%	23%	-24.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

21% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +9% → late +8% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$24 vs −$17 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized+$131

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)54%

Wins / losses14 / 12

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions5

Markets (closed)26 / 31

History coverage12d

Avg bet$42

Trades / day5.8

Drawdown93%

Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	91¢	90¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals	St. Louis Cardinals	89¢	94¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+6%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	Paper Rex	3¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-98%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	Jun 21	$141	+$57	+41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 21	$10	+$1	+9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Jun 21	$9	+$1	+6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	Jun 21	$100	−$7	-7%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$20	+$19	+93%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$41	+$52	+128%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	Jun 20	$51	+$62	+121%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 19	$48	−$19	-40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 19	$20	+$31	+152%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$20	−$20	-100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	Jun 12	$41	−$15	-37%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$2	+$9	+433%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner	Jun 12	$35	+$19	+54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 12	$162	−$56	-35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage	Jun 11	$122	+$11	+9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner	Jun 11	$31	−$30	-98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	Jun 11	$15	−$8	-52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 11	$76	−$15	-20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	Jun 11	$101	+$21	+21%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 09	$102	+$32	+32%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 09	$60	+$22	+36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner	Jun 09	$5	−$5	-98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner	Jun 09	$10	+$2	+19%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	BUY Paper Rex	3¢	$1	47m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals	BUY St. Louis Cardinals	89¢	$10	49m
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$20	53m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$10	53m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$10	53m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$198	54m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	92¢	$60	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	60¢	$30	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$5	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$5	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$5	11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$5	11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$2	11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$2	11h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	SELL Yes	84¢	$94	11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	60¢	$51	11h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$0	22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$93	22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$39	24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$20	26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Team Falcons	43¢	$41	26h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Team Falcons	37¢	$31	45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	17¢	$7	45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	13¢	$8	46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	31¢	$20	46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	SELL Team Falcons	53¢	$32	46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$51	46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Team Falcons	33¢	$20	2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	32¢	$19	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.38 · official $50.38 (match) · 77 history records