Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:54:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

E1 0xe13e…971e crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$92 (+5%) realized −$626 · open +$718

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate71%10W / 4L

Drawdown32%max

Avg bet$76per market

Trades / day56.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1,308now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)+11.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+23.4%	+11.7%	71%	71%	+24.4%
≤30d	14	+23.4%	+11.7%	71%	71%	+24.4%
≤90d	14	+23.4%	+11.7%	71%	71%	+24.4%
all	14	+23.4%	+11.7%	71%	71%	+24.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover56.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+11.7%	71%	+24.4%
10% ← realistic here	+1.0%	64%	+12.5%
15%	-8.8%	64%	+1.6%
20%	-17.7%	43%	-8.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +23% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +55% → late -8% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$59 vs −$50 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.95 per $1 lost it wins $2.95

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,308

Realized−$626

Unrealized+$718

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses10 / 4

Open positions10

Markets (closed)14 / 24

History coverage1d

Avg bet$76

Trades / day56.0

Drawdown32%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 10 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	6¢	50¢	$30	$238	+$208 (+693%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	30¢	50¢	$100	$171	+$71 (+71%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	37¢	50¢	$100	$134	+$34 (+34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	20¢	50¢	$50	$124	+$74 (+148%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	31¢	50¢	$70	$113	+$43 (+62%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	22¢	50¢	$50	$113	+$63 (+126%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	27¢	50¢	$60	$110	+$50 (+84%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	19¢	50¢	$40	$106	+$66 (+166%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	24¢	50¢	$50	$105	+$55 (+110%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	21¢	50¢	$40	$94	+$54 (+136%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 22	$79	−$79	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Jun 22	$52	−$52	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Jun 22	$52	−$52	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 22	$105	+$41	+39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Jun 22	$155	+$60	+39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 22	$115	+$119	+104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Jun 22	$96	+$61	+64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 22	$99	+$127	+128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 22	$63	+$23	+37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 22	$58	+$54	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 22	$47	+$6	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 22	$16	−$16	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Jun 22	$55	+$29	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 22	$42	+$67	+160%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$105	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$32	5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	SELL Up	70¢	$185	5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	SELL Up	58¢	$51	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$97	8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$63	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$42	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$104	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Down	22¢	$53	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	SELL Up	72¢	$212	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$79	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	SELL Up	53¢	$226	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$99	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$52	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$52	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	SELL Up	57¢	$145	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Up	19¢	$53	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$53	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	SELL Down	48¢	$216	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$53	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	19¢	$42	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Up	15¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	SELL Down	78¢	$80	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	SELL Up	71¢	$154	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$62	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,308.32 · official $1,308.32 (match) · 68 history records