Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe13f…e560 politics 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$11
politics 41% −$12
sports 8% +$26
tech 4% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 126 -1.4% -10.8% 7% 5% -9.5%
all 142 -1.3% -10.7% 11% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 8% -9.5%
10% -19.3% 6% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×8.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 127
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage113d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $204 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $215 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $207 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $135 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $174 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $200 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $167 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $311 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $183 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $152 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $180 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $365 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $139 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $359 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $137 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 11 $178 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $198 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $196 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $167 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $165 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $156 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 03 $184 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $173 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $178 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $173 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $202 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $325 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $200 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $186 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $174 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $354 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $168 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $190 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $189 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $145 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $140 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $535 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $197 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $206 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 10h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 4d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 4d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $135 20d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $135 22d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $135 22d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $135 23d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $189 24d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $189 25d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $174 25d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $174 25d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 25d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 25d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $167 25d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $167 26d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $165 27d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $165 28d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $183 28d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $183 29d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $148 29d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $148 29d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $152 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 394 history records