Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E1 0xe140…039d other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$23 (+29%) realized +$35 · open −$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +161% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +127% what you keep after slip

Net edge+127%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+136.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+160.9%	+136.1%	100%	100%	+55.0%
≤30d	2	+160.9%	+136.1%	100%	100%	+55.0%
≤90d	2	+160.9%	+136.1%	100%	100%	+55.0%
all	2	+160.9%	+136.1%	100%	100%	+55.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+136.1%	100%	+55.0%
10%	+113.5%	50%	+40.1%
15%	+92.9%	50%	+26.6%
20%	+74.0%	50%	+14.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +71% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +161% · $-wt +71% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$16

Realized+$35

Unrealized−$12

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	48¢	28¢	$29	$16	−$12 (-43%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$26	+$4	+14%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Jun 28	$6	+$19	+307%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	48¢	$28	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	45¢	$1	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	87¢	$26	18h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$6	21h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will	BUY	25¢	$10	21h
Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY	38¢	$10	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.47 · official $16.47 (match) · 8 history records