Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe145…468d crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,537 (-46%) realized −$1,798 · open +$261
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate61%17W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$752now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$1,550
sports 9% +$127
politics 9% +$155
world 8% −$256
other 6% +$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -1.6% -11.0% 61% 36% -64.1%
≤30d 28 -1.6% -11.0% 61% 36% -64.1%
≤90d 28 -1.6% -11.0% 61% 36% -64.1%
all 28 -1.6% -11.0% 61% 36% -64.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 36% -64.1%
10% -19.5% 21% -67.5%
15% -27.3% 14% -70.6%
20% -34.4% 14% -73.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$177 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$752
Realized−$1,798
Unrealized+$261
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses17 / 11
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage7d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026? No 64¢ 96¢ $304 $459 +$155 (+51%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 22¢ 34¢ $187 $293 +$106 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$18 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$17 +17%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $95 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$17 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $101 −$49 -49%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$176 +173%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 11 $1,104 −$1,056 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $557 −$532 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $41 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $40 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $24 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $51 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $12 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $22 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $23 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $12 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $11 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $120 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 51m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 69¢ $92 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $21 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $751.80 · official $751.89 (match) · 83 history records