Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E1 0xe146…d23d other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 570d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$161 (+17%) realized +$192 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% +$318
other 36% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +40.3% +26.9% 100% 100% +26.9%
≤30d 1 +40.3% +26.9% 100% 100% +26.9%
≤90d 4 +19.5% +8.1% 50% 50% +1.0%
all 12 -14.5% -22.7% 42% 33% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 33% +8.0%
10% -30.1% 33% -2.3%
15% -36.8% 33% -11.8%
20% -43.0% 17% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$41 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

570d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$192
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage570d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 30¢ $68 $37 −$31 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $77 +$31 +40%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 25 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will WalletConnect win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Nov 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? May 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? May 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $200 +$90 +45%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $163 +$317 +194%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 09 $152 +$11 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $69 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $38 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 54¢ $38 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $38 8h
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand BUY No 81¢ $20 34d
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand BUY Yes 29¢ $5 34d
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand BUY Yes 21¢ $0 34d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 34d
Will WalletConnect win 2025 Uniswap Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 223d
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 43¢ $100 399d
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 404d
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? SELL Dan 0¢ $0 404d
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? BUY Yes 30¢ $25 405d
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? BUY Dan 18¢ $25 405d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? BUY No 69¢ $200 423d
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 34¢ $163 423d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL No 63¢ $163 565d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? BUY No 58¢ $152 569d
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 570d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.13 · official $37.13 (match) · 24 history records