Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe148…cc9c crypto 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$44 (+4%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$243
other 37% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -46.9% -51.9% 29% 29% -50.7%
≤30d 19 +23.5% +11.7% 26% 21% -27.7%
≤90d 19 +23.5% +11.7% 26% 21% -27.7%
all 19 +23.5% +11.7% 26% 21% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.7% 21% -27.7%
10% +1.1% 21% -34.6%
15% -8.7% 16% -41.0%
20% -17.7% 16% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +75% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$39 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage14d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $223 +$58 +26%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $84 −$38 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 +$16 +91%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 05 $41 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 05 $36 +$51 +140%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 05 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 05 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 05 $21 −$8 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 05 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 05 $51 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 05 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $50 −$43 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $58 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $19 +$205 +1103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $148 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 47¢ $281 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 36¢ $223 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $33 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $33 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $32 13d
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $41 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $36 13d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 13d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 13d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 19¢ $46 13d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? SELL No 23¢ $13 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $46 13d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 20¢ $46 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $39 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $31 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? SELL No 1¢ $7 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? SELL Yes 22¢ $62 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 18¢ $58 13d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 33¢ $21 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $21 13d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 13d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 13d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 13d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $224 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $19 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records