Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe14a…62be sports 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (403 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$214 (-5%) realized −$16 · open −$198
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%35W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day402.6pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$483
other 4% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (403 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +4.1% -5.8% 51% 44% -20.9%
≤30d 68 +4.1% -5.8% 51% 44% -20.9%
≤90d 68 +4.1% -5.8% 51% 44% -20.9%
all 68 +4.1% -5.8% 51% 44% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover402.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 44% -20.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 37% -28.5%
15% -23.1% 28% -35.4%
20% -30.6% 24% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$27 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,218
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$198
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses35 / 33
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions39
Markets (closed)68 / 107
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day402.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 55¢ 91¢ $168 $278 +$109 (+65%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Washington Mystics 69¢ 100¢ $107 $155 +$48 (+45%)
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Chicago Sky 58¢ 50¢ $97 $84 −$13 (-13%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 86¢ 99¢ $61 $70 +$9 (+15%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 20¢ 9¢ $139 $63 −$76 (-55%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Over 46¢ 38¢ $71 $59 −$11 (-16%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky New York Liberty 73¢ 78¢ $47 $50 +$4 (+8%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Under 42¢ 84¢ $23 $46 +$23 (+99%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 30¢ 12¢ $103 $43 −$60 (-58%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 25¢ 22¢ $49 $41 −$7 (-15%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Toronto Blue Jays 69¢ 68¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 Over 40¢ 58¢ $22 $32 +$10 (+46%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Atlanta Braves 53¢ 69¢ $22 $28 +$7 (+31%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Atlanta Braves 34¢ 34¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Cleveland Guardians 56¢ 58¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 76¢ 88¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+15%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) San Francisco Giants 81¢ 90¢ $14 $15 +$2 (+12%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 29¢ 28¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Under 49¢ 62¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+26%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 Under 74¢ 82¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+11%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) New York Yankees 64¢ 95¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+49%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 59¢ 94¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+59%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Colorado Rockies 51¢ 30¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-42%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 19¢ 6¢ $27 $8 −$19 (-71%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Chicago Cubs 42¢ 92¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+120%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $11 +$3 +28%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $10 −$2 -23%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $2 +$1 +52%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $20 +$13 +62%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $7 −$2 -27%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $35 −$26 -74%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $4 +$1 +37%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $22 +$10 +44%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +54%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $86 +$26 +31%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $13 +$28 +224%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 17 $13 +$38 +300%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 17 $81 −$23 -28%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $101 −$50 -50%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $27 +$23 +88%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $180 +$71 +39%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $308 −$1 -0%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$14 +28%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 -5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $23 +$34 +144%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $280 −$147 -52%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 −$30 -60%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Jun 17 $17 +$40 +240%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $105 +$15 +14%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $154 −$79 -51%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $54 −$1 -2%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 17 $45 +$4 +8%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 17 $64 −$49 -77%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +74%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $12 −$2 -18%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 17 $3 +$1 +24%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 17 $19 +$3 +17%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $11 −$6 -54%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $55 −$47 -85%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $7 $0 +6%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $89 +$76 +84%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $45 +$8 +19%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $64 +$38 +59%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $127 −$120 -94%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $59 +$18 +31%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5) Jun 17 $63 +$15 +25%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 17 $51 −$9 -17%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 17 $3 +$3 +133%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $56 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 73¢ $47 1m
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) BUY Chicago Sky 61¢ $49 1m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 25¢ $46 1m
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) BUY Chicago Sky 56¢ $46 1m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 5m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 85¢ $4 6m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 70¢ $29 6m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 28¢ $3 8m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 59¢ $1 12m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 59¢ $1 12m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 37¢ $3 12m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 57¢ $8 12m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 24¢ $3 13m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 40¢ $2 13m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 83¢ $4 13m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 25¢ $1 14m
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) BUY Chicago Sky 49¢ $3 15m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 85¢ $4 20m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 26¢ $2 20m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 72¢ $4 20m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 26¢ $14 20m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 26¢ $24 20m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 26¢ $8 20m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 24¢ $2 20m
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) BUY New York Yankees 81¢ $4 21m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 96¢ $9 21m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 93¢ $48 21m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 34¢ $2 22m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 82¢ $24 24m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 39¢ $5 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,217.64 · official $1,217.65 (match) · 583 history records