Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe14b…1ad3 sports 293 markets active 1h ago coverage 344d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8,209 (-3%) realized −$8,159 · open −$50
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate62%180W / 109L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,010per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$6,349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$201
7 days−$201
14 days−$201
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$6,809
sports 33% −$1,523
other 22% −$135
tech 1% +$100
economics 0% +$47
world 0% −$30
weather 0% −$11
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -4.8% -13.9% 67% 48% -10.1%
≤30d 21 -4.8% -13.9% 67% 48% -10.1%
≤90d 21 -4.8% -13.9% 67% 48% -10.1%
all 289 -13.0% -21.3% 62% 30% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 30% -12.1%
10% -28.9% 17% -20.5%
15% -35.7% 13% -28.2%
20% -42.0% 11% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$1,070) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$418 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

344d coverage
Net worth$6,349
Realized−$8,159
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses180 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions4
Markets (closed)289 / 293
History coverage344d
Avg bet$1,010
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 289 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 99¢ $2,032 $2,216 +$184 (+9%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? No 81¢ 92¢ $1,806 $2,063 +$256 (+14%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 86¢ 86¢ $1,891 $1,880 −$11 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 30¢ $669 $189 −$479 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,006 −$38 -4%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $761 −$22 -3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $489 −$25 -5%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $847 +$336 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,681 +$287 +17%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,148 +$397 +18%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,306 +$224 +17%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,437 −$708 -49%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $646 −$346 -54%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,074 +$234 +8%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,376 −$1,700 -50%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $277 +$63 +23%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,127 +$616 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 +$22 +52%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,197 +$263 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2,037 +$324 +16%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,198 +$136 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,422 +$76 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $754 −$750 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,801 +$40 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,999 +$369 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 9-15? Mar 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 13? Mar 13 $880 −$300 -34%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 11? Mar 12 $405 +$56 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $500 +$525 +105%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 10? Mar 11 $700 +$69 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 10? Mar 10 $1,075 −$62 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 23-March 1? Mar 09 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 9? Mar 09 $550 +$105 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $999 +$99 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 6? Mar 06 $1,000 +$111 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $1,000 −$28 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $1,000 +$80 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $999 +$124 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $1,000 −$405 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $442 +$78 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 1? Mar 02 $1,000 +$180 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 2? Mar 02 $1,000 −$530 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 1? Feb 28 $1,180 −$831 -70%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1? Feb 28 $997 +$1,888 +189%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 27? Feb 27 $1,500 +$184 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 15? Feb 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 16-22? Feb 24 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 9-15? Feb 24 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 9-15? Feb 24 $1,043 −$1,043 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 16-22? Feb 24 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 23 $1,221 +$1,420 +116%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February? Feb 17 $500 −$436 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $1,899 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 79¢ $791 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL No 74¢ $740 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 47¢ $464 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $811 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $524 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 20¢ $177 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $195 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $237 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $489 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $8 3h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $23 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $25 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $14 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $33 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $628 5h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $1,794 5h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $2,012 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $847 6h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $835 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $716 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 40¢ $678 6h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $784 6h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $845 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $721 6h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $1,306 6h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Under 33¢ $300 7h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $646 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 84¢ $2,148 7h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $78 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,348.92 · official $6,348.92 (match) · 1378 history records