Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E1 0xe14c…85dd crypto 528 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$433 (+2%) realized +$433 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%314W / 214L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$109
14 days−$32
30 days+$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$263
sports 1% −$100
other 0% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +8.8% -1.5% 65% 65% +2.7%
≤30d 528 +0.3% -9.3% 59% 57% -8.4%
≤90d 528 +0.3% -9.3% 59% 57% -8.4%
all 528 +0.3% -9.3% 59% 57% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 57% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 53% -17.2%
15% -25.9% 47% -25.2%
20% -33.1% 36% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$27 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$433
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses314 / 214
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)528 / 528
History coverage29d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 528 Trades
no open positions (168 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$18 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $16 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 946 history records