Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe14e…8754 crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$99 (-13%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$60
14 days−$60
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$163
weather 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 40 -16.3% -24.3% 38% 22% -29.9%
all 43 -13.3% -21.5% 42% 26% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 26% -28.1%
10% -29.0% 21% -35.0%
15% -35.9% 16% -41.3%
20% -42.2% 14% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage91d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma May 12 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 06 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 06 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 06 $60 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 06 $6 +$24 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 06 $23 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 06 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 31 $60 −$24 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 31 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 31 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 31 $33 −$17 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 30 $15 −$11 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 30 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Mar 30 $19 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Mar 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Mar 29 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 28 $28 −$13 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Mar 28 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 28 $16 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 28 $19 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Mar 24 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 23 $4 +$6 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 23 $4 +$6 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 21 $14 +$11 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 21 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 21 $6 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 19 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Mar 19 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Mar 19 $14 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $27 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma BUY Yes 82¢ $8 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $27 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $23 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $28 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $21 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $7 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $22 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $3 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $2 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $8 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $7 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $5 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $4 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records