Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E1
0xe154…0b7f
other · 289 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$847 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6,029 · open −$11,165
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$105,141
Realized+$6,029
Unrealized−$11,165
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses76 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions265
Markets (closed)163 / 289
History coverage21d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day155.8
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 265 History 163 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,943
7 days+$2,672
14 days+$5,956
30 days+$6,029
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 99¢ $25,000 $49,275 +$24,275 (+97%)
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 57¢ 89¢ $7,698 $11,966 +$4,268 (+55%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 84¢ 94¢ $9,272 $10,299 +$1,027 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 50¢ 79¢ $3,546 $5,624 +$2,078 (+59%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 60¢ 77¢ $1,500 $1,930 +$430 (+29%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 66¢ 99¢ $1,239 $1,873 +$634 (+51%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $1,089 $1,478 +$389 (+36%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 40¢ 68¢ $800 $1,360 +$560 (+70%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 48¢ $778 $1,213 +$435 (+56%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? No 74¢ 70¢ $1,191 $1,132 −$59 (-5%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 77¢ 72¢ $1,155 $1,088 −$68 (-6%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No 50¢ 88¢ $500 $880 +$380 (+76%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 60¢ 99¢ $461 $761 +$300 (+65%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $25,000 $725 −$24,275 (-97%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $600 $678 +$78 (+13%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 24¢ 42¢ $374 $662 +$288 (+77%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $447 $642 +$195 (+44%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $392 $535 +$143 (+36%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $425 $505 +$80 (+19%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $341 $462 +$121 (+35%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 89¢ 92¢ $445 $461 +$16 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $221 $438 +$216 (+98%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 25¢ 26¢ $395 $403 +$8 (+2%)
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? No 78¢ 81¢ $385 $398 +$13 (+3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $96 $398 +$302 (+316%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $464 +$73 +16%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $53 +$33 +62%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $100 +$50 +50%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $70 +$89 +128%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 12 $35 +$40 +112%
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 +$12 +1533%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 12 $23 +$10 +43%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 +243%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $44 +$60 +136%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $350 +$2,014 +576%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 11 $6 +$58 +977%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 11 $6 +$448 +8003%
Will a player representing DR Congo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $11 +$35 +316%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 11 $0 $0 +126%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 11 $15 +$19 +127%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $47 +$5 +10%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 10 $45 +$17 +37%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $0 $0 +96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $72 −$18 -26%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $11 +$3 +25%
Will Apple announce a new product line during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Apple announce a touchscreen MacBook during the WWDC 2026 keynote Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $325 −$73 -22%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $73 +$225 +307%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $63 −$63 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $79 −$79 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $55 −$44 -80%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $269 −$239 -89%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $0 $0 +2400%
Will "Schmigadoon!" win Best Book of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards Jun 08 $1 +$6 +487%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $11 +$49 +450%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 07 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $0 +$4 +3900%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 06 $6 +$18 +313%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 06 $10 +$4 +39%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 43% −$22,992
world 26% +$5,688
other 22% +$8,732
tech 8% +$1,406
economics 1% +$92
finance 0% +$1,796
crypto 0% +$305
sports 0% −$120
culture 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 18¢ $325 9m
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 19m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28m
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 18¢ $22 40m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $127 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $25 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $25 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL No 26¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in July 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $32 1h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL No 26¢ $1 1h
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY No 4¢ $4 1h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL No 26¢ $1 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $23 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL No 26¢ $1 2h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL No 26¢ $1 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $75 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 18¢ $32 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+129.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +190.1% +162.5% 56% 54% +75.8%
≤30d 163 +153.5% +129.4% 47% 45% +11.7%
≤90d 163 +153.5% +129.4% 47% 45% +11.7%
all 163 +153.5% +129.4% 47% 45% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover155.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +129.4% 45% +11.7%
10% ← realistic here +107.4% 42% +1.0%
15% +87.4% 37% -8.7%
20% +69.0% 34% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105,141.35 · official $105,142.90 (match) · 3500 history records