Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe155…367e crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,503 (+5%) realized +$1,472 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate85%34W / 6L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$656per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$166
7 days−$45
14 days+$1,059
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$371
crypto 44% +$1,126
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -9.0% -17.7% 75% 69% -10.4%
≤30d 36 +3.0% -6.8% 83% 58% -9.5%
≤90d 40 +5.1% -5.0% 85% 60% -4.7%
all 40 +5.1% -5.0% 85% 60% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 60% -4.7%
10% -14.0% 22% -13.8%
15% -22.4% 10% -22.1%
20% -30.0% 2% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$668) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$364 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized+$1,472
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses34 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage62d
Avg bet$656
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 86¢ 96¢ $300 $338 +$38 (+13%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $302 −$302 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $304 +$136 +45%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $312 +$68 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $303 +$67 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $328 +$72 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $333 +$67 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$101 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $255 +$75 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $470 +$80 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $267 +$43 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $296 +$44 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $355 +$47 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $348 +$87 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $326 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $228 −$228 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $232 −$232 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $331 +$149 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $576 +$124 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $395 +$105 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $348 +$52 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $333 +$121 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $508 +$45 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $386 +$102 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $41 +$9 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $736 +$64 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $668 +$43 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $568 +$106 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $525 +$36 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $498 +$27 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $405 +$97 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $380 +$24 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $354 +$29 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 05 $1,299 +$46 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $1,111 +$197 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $3,359 −$965 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $1,283 −$354 -28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $4,113 +$425 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 01 $1,746 +$264 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 26 $1,549 +$197 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $989 +$560 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $156 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $302 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $75 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $206 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 26h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $312 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $303 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $139 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $164 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $67 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $250 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $119 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $153 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $339.08 · official $339.08 (match) · 161 history records