Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E1 0xe156…134b sports 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,663 (-6%) realized −$6,663 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%50W / 103L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$771per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$911est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,458
7 days+$1,637
14 days+$1,637
30 days+$2,706
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$10,696
crypto 1% −$32
other 0% +$2,029
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +87.2% +69.4% 40% 40% +15.8%
≤30d 14 +23.0% +11.3% 43% 43% +5.7%
≤90d 122 -15.0% -23.1% 34% 34% -11.8%
all 153 -17.2% -25.1% 33% 32% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 32% -14.8%
10% -32.2% 32% -22.9%
15% -38.8% 31% -30.4%
20% -44.8% 31% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$1,100) neutral
Persistence
early -19% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,199 vs −$667 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,663
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses50 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$911
Open positions0
Markets (closed)153 / 153
History coverage247d
Avg bet$771
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 153 Trades
no open positions (95 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,390 +$1,458 +105%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,827 −$1,798 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,575 −$90 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $610 −$32 -5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $475 +$2,099 +442%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) May 29 $913 −$900 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 169.5 May 29 $1,420 −$1,400 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 29 $815 −$800 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 May 25 $2,660 +$2,575 +97%
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty: O/U 176.5 May 24 $849 −$837 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 181.5 May 24 $406 +$444 +109%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5 May 24 $1,054 +$809 +77%
PortlandFire vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 May 24 $1,625 +$1,677 +103%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 21 $508 −$500 -98%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 05 $1,622 −$1,600 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 05 $1,422 +$1,553 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 05 $1,523 +$1,598 +105%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 May 05 $2,030 −$2,025 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 214.5 Apr 30 $1,147 −$1,130 -98%
Kings vs. Warriors Apr 08 $749 −$729 -97%
Spread: Celtics (-4.5) Apr 08 $1,902 −$1,866 -98%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 07 $400 −$392 -98%
Spread: Pelicans (-11.5) Apr 07 $1,000 −$988 -99%
Jazz vs. Pelicans Apr 07 $420 −$410 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Pacers Apr 07 $300 −$292 -97%
Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5) Apr 07 $900 −$886 -98%
Spread: Bulls (-5.5) Apr 07 $1,200 −$1,182 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Apr 07 $298 +$245 +82%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $210 −$205 -97%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 06 $300 −$293 -98%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 06 $240 −$235 -98%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) Apr 06 $145 +$152 +105%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $100 −$97 -97%
Spread: Magic (-6.5) Apr 03 $431 −$424 -98%
Raptors vs. Grizzlies Apr 03 $400 −$389 -97%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers: O/U 233.5 Apr 03 $1,189 −$1,172 -99%
Jazz vs. Rockets Apr 03 $360 −$350 -97%
Celtics vs. Bucks Apr 03 $320 −$311 -97%
Hawks vs. Nets Apr 03 $360 −$350 -97%
Bulls vs. Knicks Apr 03 $360 −$350 -97%
Pacers vs. Hornets Apr 03 $350 −$341 -97%
Spread: Celtics (-17.5) Apr 03 $400 −$394 -98%
Spread: Hawks (-16.5) Apr 03 $430 −$423 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Apr 03 $400 −$395 -99%
Spread: Hornets (-15.5) Apr 03 $400 −$394 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons: O/U 223.5 Apr 03 $800 +$679 +85%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Apr 03 $1,388 −$1,368 -99%
Suns vs. Hornets: O/U 223.5 Apr 03 $761 +$627 +82%
Kings vs. Raptors Apr 02 $450 +$2,289 +509%
Spread: Bulls (-4.5) Apr 02 $700 +$625 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,848 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,390 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1,827 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $1,485 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $305 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $578 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $610 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1,270 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $475 3d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) BUY Chicago Sky 55¢ $203 18d
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 51¢ $406 18d
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,014 18d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) BUY Chicago Sky 51¢ $710 18d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 37¢ $509 18d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 35¢ $306 18d
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5,235 23d
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 BUY Over 50¢ $609 24d
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,015 24d
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,015 24d
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 BUY Over 51¢ $21 24d
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 55¢ $849 24d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 181.5 SELL Over 100¢ $850 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,863 24d
PortlandFire vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3,302 24d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 181.5 BUY Over 47¢ $406 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1,054 25d
PortlandFire vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,625 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 46¢ $508 27d
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) BUY Nongshim Red Force 54¢ $1,622 43d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) SELL Timberwolves 100¢ $2,976 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 267 history records