Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:25:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe157…6131 other 129 markets active 2d ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$3
politics 33% −$3
sports 8% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 128 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×7.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 119
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage120d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $72 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $178 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $7 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $120 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $52 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $158 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $44 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $44 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $170 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $126 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $127 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 22 $117 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $103 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $61 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $92 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $94 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $159 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $9 3d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $7 8d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 8d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 9d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 9d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 12d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.00 · official $8.00 (match) · 379 history records