Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe157…4f0e other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$399 (+4%) realized +$287 · open +$112
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$2,136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$78
14 days−$66
30 days−$677
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$26
world 35% +$1,082
tech 15% −$676
crypto 10% −$215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -12.7% -21.0% 36% 14% -13.4%
≤30d 19 -12.6% -20.9% 42% 11% -25.6%
≤90d 26 -4.6% -13.6% 50% 27% -7.0%
all 34 -6.1% -15.0% 53% 32% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 32% -8.4%
10% -23.1% 24% -17.2%
15% -30.6% 12% -25.2%
20% -37.4% 6% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$72 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$2,136
Realized+$287
Unrealized+$112
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage165d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1,263 $1,248 −$16 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 86¢ $734 $855 +$121 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $28 $34 +$6 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $1,403 −$59 -4%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $28 +$6 +22%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -28%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $52 +$8 +14%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $61 +$1 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $52 −$4 -7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $36 −$4 -11%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $36 −$8 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $164 −$7 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $306 +$18 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $305 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $299 +$6 +2%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? May 30 $931 −$617 -66%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $796 −$59 -7%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $1,261 +$319 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $83 +$12 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 21 $35 +$33 +95%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $748 +$524 +70%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $732 +$176 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 7? Apr 21 $118 −$118 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 7? Mar 06 $18 −$10 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7AM ET Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 3PM ET Jan 07 $328 −$241 -73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $189 +$7 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 5? Jan 05 $194 +$49 +25%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 5? Jan 05 $34 +$15 +43%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 5? Jan 05 $141 +$34 +24%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 4? Jan 04 $100 +$42 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $22 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $70 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $293 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $396 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $782 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $497 28h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $166 28h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $681 28h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 69¢ $1,344 28h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $332 45h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $37 45h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 51¢ $34 4d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $12 4d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 4d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 4d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $224 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $31 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $62 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $48 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $51 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $32 4d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 70¢ $1,403 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $28 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $28 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $28 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,136.29 · official $2,136.29 (match) · 131 history records