Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe15a…9854 other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$344 (-4%) realized −$336 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%32W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$398
politics 1% +$12
sports 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.3% -3.8% 100% 0% -3.8%
≤30d 4 -52.8% -57.3% 25% 0% -35.5%
≤90d 4 -52.8% -57.3% 25% 0% -35.5%
all 107 -19.3% -27.0% 30% 20% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 20% -13.2%
10% -34.0% 14% -21.5%
15% -40.3% 9% -29.1%
20% -46.2% 7% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$17 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$336
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses32 / 75
Open positions3
Markets (closed)107 / 110
History coverage166d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $55 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $51 $44 −$7 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $116 +$7 +6%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 09 $51 −$9 -18%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 202 Feb 24 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 20 Feb 23 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Feb 23 $2 +$3 +148%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 Feb 19 $24 −$12 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 Feb 18 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026 Feb 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 202 Feb 18 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $13 −$3 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $12 −$7 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $55 −$15 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $42 −$26 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 20 Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 202 Feb 16 $103 −$57 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 20 Feb 16 $44 −$41 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026 Feb 16 $475 −$111 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026 Feb 16 $114 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026? Feb 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026 Feb 15 $157 −$41 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 20 Feb 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026 Feb 14 $208 +$45 +22%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? Feb 14 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 13 $5 −$2 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 13 $28 −$5 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 13 $369 −$9 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 13 $241 +$56 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 13 $48 −$10 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 13 $7 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 13 $128 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 12 $10 −$6 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 12 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 12 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 Feb 12 $321 −$231 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 Feb 11 $112 −$33 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 Feb 11 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 Feb 11 $99 −$58 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $60 −$30 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $136 +$30 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $266 +$78 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $649 +$90 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $240 +$11 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026 Feb 09 $16 −$4 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026 Feb 09 $155 +$80 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026 Feb 09 $50 +$5 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $63 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $123 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $53 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $57 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $116 2d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? SELL Yes 23¢ $42 21d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 21d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 47d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 47d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 202 BUY Yes 8¢ $2 125d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 20 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 125d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 202 SELL Yes 11¢ $1 125d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 125d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 202 BUY Yes 26¢ $3 125d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 SELL Yes 12¢ $2 128d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 SELL Yes 16¢ $3 128d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 BUY Yes 5¢ $2 130d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 SELL Yes 5¢ $1 130d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $1 130d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 130d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 BUY Yes 3¢ $7 130d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 SELL Yes 32¢ $6 130d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 BUY Yes 22¢ $14 130d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 202 SELL Yes 76¢ $15 130d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 202 BUY Yes 77¢ $4 131d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 SELL Yes 21¢ $4 131d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 BUY Yes 27¢ $10 131d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 202 BUY Yes 70¢ $10 131d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $3 131d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 SELL Yes 5¢ $1 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.30 · official $159.30 (match) · 505 history records