trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 40¢ | 44¢ | $14 | $16 | +$2 (+11%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 10 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Jul 07 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jul 07 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jul 07 | $6 | $0 | -1% |
| Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening | Jul 06 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? | Jul 06 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? | Jul 06 | $7 | $0 | -2% |
| Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election | Jul 06 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? | Jul 06 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jul 04 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb | Jul 03 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 03 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 28 | $10 | $0 | +5% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? | Jun 25 | $3 | −$2 | -88% |
| Will Trump deport less than 250,000? | Jun 02 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Amazon buy TikTok? | Apr 17 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? | Apr 16 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? | Mar 31 | $12 | +$1 | +4% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 67% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 67% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 67% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 24 | -3.2% | -12.4% | 58% | 0% | -10.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.4% | 0% | -10.0% |
| 10% | -20.8% | 0% | -18.6% |
| 15% | -28.4% | 0% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -35.4% | 0% | -33.7% |