Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5
score
E1 0xe167…c0e6 other 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,456 (+17%) realized +$2,530 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%23W / 50L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day36.3pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$1,157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$598
sports 23% +$2,874
crypto 5% +$19
world 1% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +27.9% +15.7% 32% 27% +3.9%
≤30d 73 +27.9% +15.7% 32% 27% +3.9%
≤90d 73 +27.9% +15.7% 32% 27% +3.9%
all 73 +27.9% +15.7% 32% 27% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.7% 27% +3.9%
10% ← realistic here +4.6% 25% -6.0%
15% -5.5% 23% -15.1%
20% -14.7% 22% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$325 vs −$104 · ×3.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,157
Realized+$2,530
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses23 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions13
Markets (closed)73 / 86
History coverage6d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day36.3
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $180 $150 −$30 (-17%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 14¢ 12¢ $130 $117 −$13 (-10%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 15¢ 14¢ $110 $100 −$10 (-9%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-3%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $227 +$977 +430%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $30 +$83 +272%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $40 −$39 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$94 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$27 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$2 +7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $150 −$95 -63%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $152 −$148 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $304 −$137 -45%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $48 −$47 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$81 -80%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,524 −$355 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$2 +10%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $410 +$987 +241%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $271 +$441 +163%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,514 −$340 -22%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $53 −$30 -56%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $51 −$24 -46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $955 +$776 +81%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $305 −$41 -13%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $173 +$104 +60%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $722 −$722 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $262 +$190 +73%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $255 −$222 -87%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $238 +$586 +246%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $113 −$111 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $154 −$150 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$94 -91%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $161 −$140 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $85 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$23 +44%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $103 −$25 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $134 +$118 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $78 +$27 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$15 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $41 5h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $51 5h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 5h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $1,205 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $62 5h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 5h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $113 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $96 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $96 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $39 7h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $39 7h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $20 8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $63 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 13¢ $92 9h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $92 9h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 10h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $36 10h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 10h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $97 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,156.83 · official $1,156.83 (match) · 245 history records