Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E1 0xe168…e559 world 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,563 (-11%) realized −$12,556 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate63%56W / 33L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,173per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,222
7 days+$2,840
14 days−$777
30 days−$4,270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$14,255
finance 6% +$499
other 4% +$1,345
sports 3% +$521
crypto 2% −$492
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +81.7% +64.4% 100% 100% +54.4%
≤30d 32 +9.7% -0.8% 50% 50% -28.1%
≤90d 39 +2.7% -7.1% 49% 46% -44.1%
all 89 +11.8% +1.2% 63% 47% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 47% -19.8%
10% -8.5% 38% -27.5%
15% -17.3% 30% -34.5%
20% -25.4% 26% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$708) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +25% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$759 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$1,233
Realized−$12,556
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses56 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions5
Markets (closed)89 / 94
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,173
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $400 $398 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $148 $147 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $92 $92 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $271 +$263 +97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $708 +$403 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $587 +$413 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $309 +$191 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $14 +$5 +32%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $39 +$13 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $697 +$333 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,151 +$969 +84%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$107 +262%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,158 −$332 -29%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $1,578 −$868 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$24 +92%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$60 +291%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $69 −$11 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 08 $195 −$96 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $470 −$213 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $162 +$102 +63%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1,748 −$1,336 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 08 $225 +$46 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $1,174 −$1,105 -94%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $986 −$225 -23%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $657 +$516 +79%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 29 $380 −$380 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $325 +$56 +17%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 23 $4,935 −$2,152 -44%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 23 $2,482 −$1,017 -41%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 22 $500 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 22 $12,000 −$8,637 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 23 $293 −$290 -99%
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5 Apr 22 $300 −$298 -99%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $563 +$30 +5%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 18 $128 +$37 +29%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 18 $300 +$98 +33%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 09 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? Mar 08 $372 +$56 +15%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $294 +$78 +27%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 06 $800 −$729 -91%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 4? Mar 04 $6,429 +$498 +8%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? Mar 04 $4,850 −$4,724 -97%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 03 $5,024 +$1,405 +28%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? Mar 03 $5,527 −$1,316 -24%
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? Mar 03 $1,001 +$12 +1%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? Mar 03 $10,390 +$861 +8%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 03 $10,195 −$41 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $271 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 61¢ $271 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 85¢ $149 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $404 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 87¢ $402 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $370 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $708 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $309 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $587 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $39 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $677 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,120 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $43 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $44 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $254 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $38 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $450 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $222 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $21 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,232.96 · official $1,233.02 (match) · 339 history records