Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

E1 0xe16c…7d00 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$84 (-9%) realized −$86 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR31%break-even

Win rate31%4W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$49per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit72%portable

Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$14

7 days+$14

14 days+$14

30 days+$14

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +31%

net ROI/market (all)-19.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-34.9%	-41.1%	25%	25%	-4.6%
≤30d	8	-34.9%	-41.1%	25%	25%	-4.6%
≤90d	8	-34.9%	-41.1%	25%	25%	-4.6%
all	13	-11.1%	-19.6%	31%	31%	-17.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.6%	31%	-17.5%
10%	-27.3%	23%	-25.4%
15%	-34.3%	23%	-32.6%
20%	-40.8%	23%	-39.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +6% → late -26% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$42 vs −$28 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.66 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage

Net worth$267

Realized−$86

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)31%

Wins / losses4 / 9

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions5

Markets (closed)13 / 18

History coverage472d

Avg bet$49

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	57¢	$180	$182	+$2 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Yes	47¢	48¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+1%)
Spread: England (-1.5)	England	31¢	32¢	$27	$27	+$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-12%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	−$5	-49%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$76	+$87	+114%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$30	−$30	-98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	−$1	-9%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 16	$51	+$33	+65%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-30?	Apr 30	$168	−$92	-55%
Will Barcelona vs. Inter end in a draw?	Apr 30	$76	−$25	-33%
Will Arsenal vs. Paris Saint Germain end in a draw?	Apr 29	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League?	Apr 18	$90	+$12	+14%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?	Apr 04	$10	+$35	+354%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	31¢	$7	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$81	1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia?	BUY Yes	9¢	$3	1h
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	31¢	$20	3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$101	4h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$51	10h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	SELL Yes	7¢	$5	14h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	47¢	$30	22h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	23h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	23h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	20¢	$9	31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	62¢	$51	46h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	60¢	$51	46h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	46¢	$76	46h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	47h
Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-30?	BUY Yes	38¢	$50	412d
Will Barcelona vs. Inter end in a draw?	SELL Yes	20¢	$3	412d
Will Barcelona vs. Inter end in a draw?	SELL Yes	20¢	$5	412d
Will Barcelona vs. Inter end in a draw?	SELL Yes	20¢	$1	412d
Will Barcelona vs. Inter end in a draw?	SELL Yes	20¢	$1	412d
Will Barcelona vs. Inter end in a draw?	SELL Yes	20¢	$40	412d
Will Barcelona vs. Inter end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$76	412d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-30?	SELL Yes	38¢	$76	412d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-30?	BUY Yes	59¢	$117	412d
Will Arsenal vs. Paris Saint Germain end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$30	413d
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League?	BUY No	88¢	$90	468d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?	BUY No	22¢	$10	472d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.75 · official $266.75 (match) · 33 history records