Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:37:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E1 0xe170…cdba sports 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$396 (-8%) realized −$391 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate62%28W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$257
sports 39% −$354
tech 12% −$367
other 7% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -57.4% -61.4% 0% 0% -61.4%
≤30d 8 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 38% -37.1%
≤90d 45 -7.4% -16.2% 62% 47% -17.4%
all 45 -7.4% -16.2% 62% 47% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 47% -17.4%
10% -24.2% 31% -25.3%
15% -31.5% 18% -32.5%
20% -38.2% 9% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$65 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$391
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses28 / 17
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage73d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 77¢ 66¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $60 −$34 -57%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $110 +$4 +4%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 23 $71 +$40 +56%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 21 $473 −$400 -85%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo May 21 $10 −$7 -71%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? May 21 $200 $0 -0%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 21 $100 +$14 +14%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $130 +$11 +8%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $100 +$17 +17%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $101 +$27 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $100 +$12 +12%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 09 $101 +$20 +20%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 09 $101 +$26 +26%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $101 +$9 +8%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 08 $108 −$2 -2%
LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 05 $10 +$3 +25%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Roar Gaming (BO1) - ACL X ESL Challenger Chin May 05 $100 +$12 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $100 +$28 +28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 30 $100 +$6 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Apr 30 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 28 $100 −$99 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner Apr 26 $1 $0 -3%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 26 $100 +$23 +23%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $30 +$7 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $200 +$14 +7%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $30 −$10 -32%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 25 $20 +$10 +50%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $30 +$16 +53%
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $6 −$3 -53%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $90 +$88 +97%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 19 $100 +$128 +128%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $248 −$73 -30%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 17 $100 +$50 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 17 $350 +$30 +9%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 16 $100 −$98 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 13 $297 +$8 +3%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 13 $100 +$21 +21%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Apr 11 $100 −$99 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $50 +$18 +37%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $50 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 26¢ $21 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 82¢ $4 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 68¢ $60 3d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Gen.G 100¢ $114 26d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 96¢ $110 26d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? BUY Yes 63¢ $71 28d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? SELL Yes 13¢ $73 28d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? BUY Yes 50¢ $71 28d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 28d
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo SELL Yes $3 28d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? SELL No 87¢ $200 28d
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo BUY Yes $10 28d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? BUY Yes 93¢ $201 28d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? SELL Yes 98¢ $115 29d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 71¢ $101 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? BUY No 87¢ $200 31d
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL No 100¢ $141 32d
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 92¢ $130 33d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $118 40d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 85¢ $100 40d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 40d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 62¢ $49 41d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 41d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $112 41d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $120 41d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $126 41d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $101 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.99 · official $75.54 · 99 history records