Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe170…418f crypto 279 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$467 (+13%) realized +$497 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%118W / 159L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$320
world 6% +$670
sports 4% +$8
other 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +246.0% +213.0% 100% 100% +213.0%
≤30d 5 -4.2% -13.4% 40% 40% -11.9%
≤90d 159 -20.9% -28.5% 47% 40% -17.3%
all 277 -15.0% -23.1% 43% 39% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 39% +1.4%
10% -30.5% 36% -8.3%
15% -37.2% 32% -17.1%
20% -43.3% 27% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$497
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses118 / 159
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)277 / 279
History coverage111d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 35¢ 14¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-59%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$25 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 24 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 24 $16 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 24 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 14 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 14 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 14 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 14 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 14 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 14 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 12 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 12 $16 +$19 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 12 $42 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 12 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 12 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 12 $25 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 12 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 06 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 06 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 06 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 06 $10 +$19 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 06 $41 +$14 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 06 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 06 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 06 $36 +$29 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 06 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 06 $21 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 06 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 06 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 06 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 06 $41 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 06 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 06 $10 +$8 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 36m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 47m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $24 52m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $20 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $36 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $36 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $16 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.98 · official $88.45 (match) · 548 history records