Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:59:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe174…a9c2 world 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%36W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$10
politics 15% −$7
other 14% −$4
sports 14% +$7
economics 6% −$1
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 34 +5.2% -4.8% 35% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 71 +2.8% -7.0% 39% 3% -9.7%
all 89 +5.1% -4.9% 40% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 4% -9.9%
10% -14.0% 3% -18.5%
15% -22.3% 3% -26.4%
20% -29.9% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses36 / 53
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage535d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 53¢ 45¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $47 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $15 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $76 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $17 −$2 -14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $39 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $41 +$2 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 -15%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $81 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $127 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $44 −$3 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $56 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $5 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $42 +$3 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $45 −$3 -7%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $46 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $23 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $38 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $39 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $39 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $8 $0 +6%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $80 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $79 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $48 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $38 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $2 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $37 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $37 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $41 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $37 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.80 · official $1.80 (match) · 355 history records