Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:37:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe175…a473 sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$146 (-4%) realized −$180 · open +$34
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate59%40W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$30
sports 33% −$164
world 12% +$41
other 8% −$25
finance 6% +$7
politics 5% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.5% -14.5% 33% 22% -6.9%
≤30d 9 -5.5% -14.5% 33% 22% -6.9%
≤90d 9 -5.5% -14.5% 33% 22% -6.9%
all 68 -10.9% -19.3% 59% 32% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 32% -13.7%
10% -27.1% 16% -22.0%
15% -34.1% 10% -29.5%
20% -40.6% 7% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$180
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses40 / 28
Open positions5
Markets (closed)68 / 73
History coverage537d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $24 +$9 +36%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $14 −$1 -10%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 17 $17 −$5 -27%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $17 −$3 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $12 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 16 $11 −$4 -37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Jun 15 $234 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 15? Dec 15 $154 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 12? Dec 13 $155 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 9? Dec 10 $147 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 8? Dec 08 $132 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 8? Dec 08 $116 +$4 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 4? Dec 08 $118 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 3? Dec 03 $207 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 2? Dec 03 $98 +$2 +2%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 05 $128 +$10 +8%
Doge ETF approved by July 31? Aug 01 $19 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 23 $16 +$2 +15%
Thunder vs. Nuggets May 16 $13 +$3 +27%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves May 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $7 +$4 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 14? May 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder May 14 $26 +$3 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 13 $42 −$25 -60%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 13 $30 −$21 -71%
Nuggets vs. Thunder May 08 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 08 $64 +$7 +12%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers May 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 08 $20 −$7 -35%
Trump trade deal before June? May 08 $68 +$7 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Warriors vs. Rockets May 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers May 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30? May 05 $7 $0 +2%
Clippers vs. Nuggets May 04 $3 +$3 +88%
Rockets vs. Warriors May 03 $43 −$16 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2? May 02 $10 +$9 +94%
India military action against Pakistan before June? May 02 $85 −$17 -20%
Nuggets vs. Clippers May 02 $65 −$21 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94000 and $96000 on May 2? May 01 $218 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 30? May 01 $9 +$3 +33%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 30 $244 +$16 +7%
Pistons vs. Knicks Apr 30 $205 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 29? Apr 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 29 $49 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 28? Apr 29 $9 −$8 -92%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 29 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 29 $20 +$4 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $56 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 87¢ $43 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 88¢ $11 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 88¢ $7 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 65¢ $3 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $8 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $36 15h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $30 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $3 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $26 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 24h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $2 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $16 32h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $1 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $16 35h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $16 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $7 38h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes $0 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $11 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 38h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 38h
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J SELL Yes 34¢ $7 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $8 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.66 · official $271.66 (match) · 250 history records